The election is over. Some people are celebrating. Others are deeply disappointed. And whenever politics produces strong emotions, investors inevitably wonder: “What does this mean for my portfolio, and should I be doing something?”
Our answer is the same today as it was before the election: probably nothing.
At Fusion, our two golden rules remain unchanged:
Successful investing is goal-focused and planning-driven. Successful investors continuously act on a plan.
In our experience, all failed investors are market-focused and current-events-driven, changing their portfolios in response to headlines, markets and short-term performance.
We always counsel clients that the only time a portfolio should change is when their objectives or needs have changed. Hard stop!
Two years ago, ahead of the 2024 presidential election, I wrote an article titled “This Is It. The End of Everything.” I borrowed those words from H. L. Mencken, who reportedly used them after Harry Truman’s stunning 1948 victory.
Of course, it wasn’t the end of everything. In fact, it wasn’t the end of anything.
Different election. Same human behavior.
Consider two statistics being circulated today. Historically, when a Republican president has faced a Democratic-controlled Congress, the S&P 500’s average annual price return has been 4.9%. The research covers six political configurations from 1953 through 2025, and that 4.9% figure was the lowest average among them.¹
Yet since 1950, the S&P 500 has produced an average gain of 15.4% in the 12 months following midterm elections, with every post-midterm 12-month period in the study producing a positive return.¹
So which statistic should investors act on?
Neither.
That’s the point.
History provides perspective. It doesn’t reliably tell us what happens next. And if we search long enough, we can almost always find a statistic supporting whatever we already believe or fear.
Warren Buffett has made essentially the same point over a lifetime of investing. At Berkshire Hathaway’s 2018 annual meeting, he observed that since he began investing at age 11, he had lived under 14 presidents, exactly seven Republicans and seven Democrats, while American businesses continued creating extraordinary wealth through wars, recessions and political crises.
Our beliefs should absolutely influence how we vote. But the outcome of an election, whether we’re thrilled by it or deeply disappointed, shouldn’t cause us to make unnecessary changes to a sound, long-term investment plan.
The real behavioral danger is convincing ourselves that the election suddenly makes the future more predictable.
I call this the Illusion of Predictive Value: the belief that because we, or even someone with a Ph.D. in finance or economics, can make a compelling argument about what will happen next, that argument has predictive value.
It doesn’t.
An informed opinion is still an opinion.
Then there’s what I call The Protest Trade.
An investor dislikes an election result and thinks, “I’ll show them. I’m selling my stocks before this becomes a disaster.”
But selling won’t change an election, a president or Congress. It won’t change the political outcome.
It may only damage their own.
Investors who sold stocks because they disliked the result of the 2024 presidential election got an expensive reminder. By August 2026, the S&P 500 had risen approximately 33.5% since Election Day.
Selling didn’t change the political outcome. It only changed their investment outcome, interrupting compounding and potentially increasing the probability of failing to fund the very goals their portfolio was designed to support.
Your financial plan didn’t vote. Your retirement goals didn’t change parties. And the future expenses your wealth needs to fund didn’t suddenly change because control of Washington did.
So feel however you feel about the election. Celebrate it. Be disappointed by it. Argue about it over Thanksgiving dinner if you must.
Just don’t let your reaction to an election become a reason to abandon a sound investment plan.
Because this election, like every election before it, may feel like the beginning or end of something politically.
But for a disciplined long-term investor, it shouldn’t be the end of anything.
Replace Election Fear With a Few Reasons for Thanksgiving Cheer
And if the election results, or the market’s short-term reaction to them, are giving you reason to worry, here are a few reasons for Thanksgiving cheer.²
- U.S. productivity rose 3.6% in the third quarter, compared with a historical average of 2.2%.²
- Recent unemployment claims were 189,000, near a 57-year low, while job openings remained above seven million and manufacturing output was up 3.7%.²
- Third-quarter S&P 500 earnings were forecast to rise nearly 30% on a 12% increase in revenue.²
- Goldman Sachs was estimating$415 of S&P 500 earnings for 2027. At an index level around 7,350, that implied a forward P/E of approximately !7.7 surprisingly close to the 30-year forward average of 17.2.²
Those numbers aren’t predictions either. They don’t tell us what markets will do next week, next month or next year.
But they are a useful reminder that while politics and markets generate plenty of reasons to worry, the underlying engine of American business and economic progress keeps moving forward.
So this Thanksgiving, replace election-result fear with a few rational reasons for cheer.
Behave accordingly.
Wishing everybody and their families, a very happy Thanksgiving.
Sources
1. Ted Jenkin, “Democrats Took Congress. Don’t Let Your Emotions Make Bad Money Moves,” Fox News, November 6, 2026. The article cites research from RBC Wealth Management and Bloomberg showing that, from 1953 through 2025, the S&P 500 averaged a 4.9% annual price return when a Republican president faced a Democratic-controlled House and Senate. The return excludes dividends. The same article cites Capital Group research reporting that the S&P 500 averaged a 15.4% gain in the 12 months following midterm elections since 1950 and that every post-midterm 12-month period studied produced a positive return. These are the same statistics referenced in the working version of The Election Is Over. Your Investment Plan Isn’t..
2. Nick Murray, “A Welcome Breath of Fresh Autumn Air,” Nick Murray Interactive, November 6, 2026. Newsletter distributed to subscribers. Murray cited third-quarter productivity, unemployment claims, job openings, manufacturing output, S&P 500 earnings and revenue forecasts, and Goldman Sachs’ 2027 S&P 500 earnings estimate.
